Quotes of the Day
Democratic chances of winning key races here are so high that top officials are trying to guard against activists getting complacent. "There is a danger that we may be too overly confident that there is going to be change," said Susan Gwinn, chairman of the Athens County Democratic Party in southeastern Ohio. "That's my biggest concern. I think, frankly, tighter numbers for us at the top of the ticket would probably be more mobilizing. I've heard people who say, 'I am not going to give any more money to that person, because he is so far ahead." And Democrats remain worried that the G.O.P. will outperform them at getting voters to the polls, much as the Republican turnout operation helped defy the oddsmakers in 2004. Both Democrats and Republicans say a ballot initiative to allow slot machine casino gambling in the state may help to turn out conservatives who would oppose it, although liberals may show up to support a proposed minimum wage increase also on the ballot.
These Ohio races are critical. Democrats need 15 seats to win back the House, and three of their best chances are in Ohio. In the Senate, where they need six seats, this is a place where they could win one. And both parties want the governor on their side come 2008, when the Presidential election could again be decided here. Not surprisingly, each party is active in the state, and outside groups are heavily involved as well. Both the liberal MoveOn.org and the conservative Chamber of Commerce have been running ads in the key races, and party operatives will be on the ground in the next few weeks. Here's a closer look at some of the key Ohio races:
SENATE
Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) v. Senator Mike DeWine (R): This race will say a lot about how both parties will perform at the polls in 2006, and perhaps 2008 as well. That's because there's nothing particularly compelling about the personal stories of either one of these candidates; they're both career politicians — DeWine served in the state senate, the U.S. House and was lieutenant governor, while Brown was a longtime state representative and the Ohio secretary of state. So it's a straight-ahead battle between two candidates who are emphasizing the same themes their parties are offering nationwide. DeWine and the national Republicans are running ads attacking Brown for his opposition to the Patriot Act, the Bush tax cuts and some measures the G.O.P. has pushed to stop illegal immigration, such as the immigration bill the House passed last year that didn't have a guest worker program. Brown is attacking DeWine for supporting trade agreements like NAFTA that he says have cost jobs in Ohio, backing President Bush on the war and not doing enough to hold down the cost of prescription drugs. Brown has long been a critic of these trade deals, which more moderate Democrats such as President Clinton have in the past supported, and if his populist rhetoric works, expect to see other candidates adopt such anti-trade rhetoric in the Midwest in 2008 to appeal to voters worried about the continuing decline of manufacturing jobs. DeWine has a history of winning close races, and for all the attention focused on it as a swing state, Ohio has long had two Republican senators and a Republican governor. But nearly all the polls over the last two months have shown Brown ahead.
HOUSE
Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Mary Joe Kilroy (D)
If Kilroy, a Franklin County Commissioner, wins this race, it would be the biggest individual victory for the House Democrats on election night, because Pryce, as the chairman of the House Republicans, is the No. 4 member of the leadership team. The Democrats see this district in Central Ohio as an opportunity to make a huge splash, as MoveOn.org and Americans United for Change, which opposes Bush's plan to revamp Social Security with private accounts, have been among the groups attacking Pryce in ads.
This race gets at one of the central questions of this campaign: will voters choose to dump incumbents who they think are perfectly nice people and good members to send a message to Washington and President Bush? Pryce is well-liked in the district and won 62% of the vote there in 2004, even while Bush and Kerry were split about evenly. And over the last few months, she's tried to reassure voters of her centrist views, by voting for and bragging about her support of embryonic stem cell research and raising the minimum wage, which most of the House Republican leadership opposed. Of course, on almost all the big issues, starting with the Iraq War, Pryce has supported Bush, and that's what Kilroy is hoping can sink the seven-term incumbent.
GOVERNOR
Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell (R) vs. Rep. Ted Strickland (D)
This was supposed to be one of the most interesting races in the country, as the two candidates both have resumes that make them stick out in their parties. Blackwell is the controversial Ohio Secretary of State, whom many Democrats blame for problems some voters had, such as long lines at polling places, on Election Day in 2004. He's one of the major figures in the rise of the conservative, evangelical wing of the Ohio Republican Party and won a difficult primary over a more moderate opponent. And he's one of the few African-American Republicans running statewide in the country. Democrats are often unfairly described as a party that doesn't appeal to religious voters, as African Americans attend church in high numbers and tend to vote Democratic, but Ted Strickland is an unusual candidate as well: the congressman has a master's degree in divinity, has worked as an administrator at a Methodist children's home and talks openly about his faith in campaign ads. Both candidates were supposed to reshuffle the usual voting patterns, as Blackwell has showed up in black churches while Strickland has appealed to evangelicals who normally back Republicans. Only Strickland has succeeded so far. In polls, Strickland is getting 40% of the vote from self-described white evangelical Christians; John Kerry got fewer than 25% in 2004. By contrast, recent polls show Blackwell getting from 15% to 20% of the black vote, about the same as Bush got. Of course, this is the race most affected by the Taft scandal, since Blackwell is running to keep the governor's office in Republican hands. Barring a stunning turnaround, he won't: polls show Strickland ahead by 12 to 21 points.
HOUSE
Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. John Cranley (D)
The Democrats have adopted a risky strategy in a few key races: having a guy who already lost to the incumbent once try again. Cranley won only 45% of the vote in 2000 in this district near Cincinnati when he took on Chabot the first time. The six-term Chabot won 60% of the vote in 2004, but this is a close district in which Bush got about 51% of the vote in 2004. This is also a much more difficult year for Republicans, and Cranley has had six more years to establish himself as a city councilman in Cincinnati.
So Chabot, like other Republicans in tight races, is changing the subject from Iraq. He's touting his work to cut wasteful spending, while accusing Cranley of supporting "amnesty" for illegal immigration. Cranley is trying to keep voters focused on the problems at hand, running ads blaming Chabot for high gas prices and linking his opponent with voters' frustrations on other issues such as the increasing national debt.
HOUSE
Zach Space (D) v. Joy Padgett (R)
In the race to replace Bob Ney, State Senator Joy Padgett has one advantage; a conservative district in eastern Ohio where President Bush won 57% of the vote in 2004. The challenge for her will be to not allow Space to define her as being close to the Bobs. Space, a lawyer, will be trying hard, as ad an he started running last week calls Padgett "Bob Taft and Bob Ney's handpicked candidate."
—with reporting by Michael Lindenberger/Louisville
- PERRY BACON, JR/WASHINGTON